Maritime Traffic Remains Subdued Compared with Pre-Conflict Levels
SINGAPORE – Middle East producers continue to load oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) despite renewed ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, according to shipping data.
Energy shipping through the strategic waterway slowed after a container ship was attacked on Thursday (Jun 25), followed by an attack on an oil tanker on Saturday. The incidents triggered retaliatory strikes, raising concerns over the stability of the interim peace agreement between Washington and Tehran.
However, on Sunday, a US official said both countries had agreed to suspend recent hostilities and resume talks aimed at safeguarding the vital shipping route.
LSEG shipping data showed that a fourth Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), capable of transporting up to 2 million barrels of oil, was loading at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura terminal on Monday. Loading activities continued despite a Saudi Aramco helicopter crash on Sunday that claimed 14 lives. The cause of the crash remains under investigation.
Three other VLCCs completed loading over the weekend before switching off their transponders after departing the terminal, a practice known as “going dark” that is sometimes used to reduce the risk of attack while transiting the Gulf.
One of the supertankers reappeared on tracking systems on Monday after safely exiting the Strait of Hormuz and is now en route to Japan, according to LSEG data.
Meanwhile, two VLCCs entered the strait on Sunday and have since docked at a terminal in the United Arab Emirates to load crude oil.
Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the situation. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) also said it does not comment on the location, movements, or routing of its vessels as a matter of company policy.
Oil and LNG Shipments Continue as Gulf Exporters Increase Loadings
Two oil products tankers and a smaller fuel tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, although overall vessel traffic remained below last week’s levels. According to Kpler analysis, tanker movements peaked at 29 vessels on June 24, marking the highest daily volume since the conflict began in late February.
Despite the recent uptick, shipping activity remains well below pre-conflict levels, when an average of 125 vessels sailed through the strait each day.
Iran Speeds Up Oil Exports
Iran has accelerated crude oil loadings after the United States temporarily waived sanctions on its oil exports for 60 days.
Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that Tehran simultaneously loaded crude at both export terminals on Kharg Island on Saturday for the first time in nearly a week.
Kpler data showed that the Iranian-flagged Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) Dan and Hawk entered the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, while approximately 8 million barrels of crude from the United Arab Emirates and Qatar were exported aboard four VLCCs over the weekend. The National Iranian Oil Company was not immediately available for comment.
Higher export volumes from the Gulf—responsible for about one-third of global oil production—have weighed on crude prices. Brent crude fell 10.6% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, although prices rebounded on Monday following the latest weekend strikes.
“If you believe the Strait of Hormuz will continue to reopen gradually over the coming weeks and months, then crude oil appears reasonably priced with a downside bias,” said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore.
“However, if the weekend flare-ups escalate into a broader conflict, current crude prices significantly underestimate the associated risks,” he added.
Qatar and UAE Maintain LNG Exports
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates also continued despite ongoing security concerns.
Ship-tracking data showed that two ballast LNG carriers reappeared west of the Strait of Hormuz on June 26 after temporarily switching off their tracking systems, while two loaded LNG carriers successfully exited the waterway.
The Al Kharaitiyat is en route to Kuwait after loading at Qatar’s Ras Laffan terminal, while another QatarEnergy-operated vessel, the Al Kharsaah, remains anchored off the Qatari coast, according to Kpler data.
Meanwhile, the ADNOC-operated Mraweh, which loaded cargo at the UAE’s Das Island terminal on June 21, is scheduled to arrive at India’s Dahej LNG terminal on July 5.
Another QatarEnergy-controlled vessel, Al Hamla, carrying LNG loaded at Ras Laffan on June 18, is expected to reach China on July 3, according to LSEG and Kpler shipping data.
QatarEnergy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
